This year’s Oscars season has been an unusually tumultuous one. From various scandals and controversies surrounding the Best Picture frontrunners, to questions of whether there should even be an awards show at all amid the ongoing crisis from the Los Angeles fires, this has all amassed to a slate of honorees where truly anything can happen — and anyone could win — tomorrow night.

Ultimately though, as I noted in my best films of 2024 rankings and in prior prediction lists, celebrating art is more valuable than ever, and my hope is that this year’s show shines a light not only on the films that deserve to be recognized by a wider audience, but also subject matter both here in LA and internationally that are worth seriously engaging with. 

Here are my predictions for the 2025 Oscars:

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

One race in which the category seems to be locked down at this point is Zoe Saldaña. Though Emilia Pérez has been marred by controversy, Saldaña’s Oscar chances seem to have come out of the other side intact, having garnered every major precursor award from Golden Globe, to BAFTA, to SAG. Within a largely uneven and problematic film, I do believe she is the best part of it, and would be content with a first-time win for her. Ariana Grande still remains a slight threat waiting in the wings for her role as Glinda in Wicked, but heading into tomorrow, this is Saldaña’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Similarly with the Supporting Actress category, it’s been Kieran Culkin all the way down for months. Like Saldaña, Culkin has swept every major award show leading up to the Oscars for his performance in A Real Pain — a performance that I found entertaining but don’t think is as transformative as Guy Pierce in The Brutalist or as empathetic as Yura Borisov in Anora. Still, none of Culkin’s fellow nominees have even slightly been able to challenge him, making this the most sure-fire win of the night.

Best Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)

Demi Moore turned in one of my favorite performances of the year with her go-for-broke role in The Substance, and I’m thrilled that the odds are in her favor to take the top honor this year. She’s been awarded across nearly every major awards body outside of BAFTA — which interestingly went to Mikey Madison in Anora, a performance I also love and could see as a potential upset in this category. To Moore’s benefit though is a longer, decades-spanning career, and the Academy does tend to award the meritocracy of that (see also: Brendan Fraser in The Whale vs Austin Butler in Elvis).  

Best Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

We’ve arrived at our first true toss-up on this list between previous Academy Award-winner Adrien Brody, and two-time nominee Timothée Chalamet. Brody had been winning across awards shows up until last week’s SAG awards, where Chalamet was awarded Best Actor. Typically, this SAG win tends to be the harbinger of an Oscar win. As I noted before though, in tight races like this, the Academy historically favors the more established actor. We’ve seen this play out as recently as last year between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, wherein the former one the SAG but the latter (who already had an Oscar) won the top honor. Both Brody and Chalamet’s performances are strong in their own distinct ways, so I believe either would be worthy of the recognition.

Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora)

Sean Baker’s solidification as the frontrunner emerged very recently. For a good portion of the awards season, Brady Corbet seemed to be the leader of the pack for The Brutalist. However, Baker’s recent win at the DGA awards seemed to finally provide concrete insight as to the direction the night is heading. Of the two, I would love to see a win for Baker, though on a personal level, Coralie Fargeat’s work in The Substance is nothing short of jaw-dropping, and I also think it’s a travesty that Denis Villeneuve wasn’t even nominated for his masterpiece, Dune: Part II.

Best Picture: Anora

As I’ve alluded to, this is the least predictable Best Picture race in years. Towards the beginning of the race, critically acclaimed Anora felt like the strongest — though not definitive — frontrunner. Both its Golden Globes shut-out and controversy emerging around the lack of an intimacy coordinator on set during filming, Anora seemed to take a step back in favor of The Brutalist or Emilia Pérez. These two films also are not without their own controversies; the former incorporated use of AI in some of the dialogue and architectural designs used in the film, while the star of the latter, Karla Sofía Gascón, has come under fire for some truly horrible tweets and social media posts that have seemingly torpedoed the film’s Best Picture chances. 

These two revelations, and more significantly the recent PGA award for Anora, seem to have positioned Sean Baker’s film back on top. However, another candidate in Conclave has emerged as a true adversary to win between its recognition for Best Picture at the BAFTAs, and Best Ensemble at the SAG awards — two strong precursors that could carve a path to victory. 

If I had it my way, this award would go to Dune: Part II, but seeing as the Academy seems to have forgotten about this film almost entirely, I do believe Anora is the most deserving candidate out of our remaining contenders to win. 

Best Original Screenplay: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist

Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Best Short Film (Animated): Yuck!

Best Documentary (Feature): No Other Land

Best Documentary (Short): The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Short Film (Live-Action): The Last Ranger

Best International Film: I’m Still Here

Best Editing: Conclave

Best Sound: A Complete Unknown

Best Visual Effects: Dune: Part II

Best Production Design: Wicked

Best Costume Design: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance

Best Original Score: The Brutalist

Best Original Song: “El Mal” (Emilia Perez)