It’s been a dark start to 2025, particularly here in Los Angeles. As I search for moments of levity, writing and art continue to be an escape. I’m taking the respite here to ponder the fate of a silly awards show, because it’s become an annual routine at the beginning of each year. So away we go…

Here are my predictions in the six major categories for this year’s Oscars (in alphabetical order):

Best Picture

A Complete Unknown

A Real Pain

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part II

Emilia Pérez

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

**Potential Spoilers: Nickel Boys, September 5

We lack a clear juggernaut like Oppenheimer this year, which has made the solidification of the Best Picture race a latent and uncertain one, but I think it now comes down to four contenders: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez. Wicked also continues to make a strong case with both critical and box office acclaim, but it’s likely that the more arthouse-driven fare will come out on top. The tenth spot — Sing Sing — is perhaps still up for grabs for something like Nickel Boys to procure, but I think it has enough momentum in other categories to carry over to the Best Picture race as well.

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Sean Baker (Anora)

Edward Berger (Conclave)

Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

**Potential Spoilers: Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part II), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), 

For me, this is the easiest category to predict. These directors have the right blend of domestic and international representation, and they’ve all helmed films likely to be nominated for (or win) Best Picture. While Coralie Fargeat wasn’t recognized by the DGA, I still believe she has a stronger chance for recognition here than James Mangold or Denis Villeneuve. Brady Corbet has the slight edge to win the category, but we’ll see if he and The Brutalist can sustain momentum coming off the Golden Globes wins.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

Mikey Madison (Anora)

Demi Moore (The Substance)

Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

**Potential Spoilers: Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Mikey Madison has been the frontrunner in this category, and has garnered all the necessary precursor nominations like SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice. Karla Sofía Gascón, Cynthia Erivo, and to my absolute delight Demi Moore, also feel locked in — and it’s worth noting that Gascón will be the first openly transgender actress nominated in the category if recognized. I didn’t initially have Fernanda Torres on my radar, but many prediction lists undervalue the international body of voters in the Academy. That, combined with Torres’ surprise Golden Globe win, should earn her the final slot.

Best Actor

Adrian Brody (The Brutalist)

Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Daniel Craig (Queer)

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

**Potential Spoilers: Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Four out of these five slots have felt pretty locked in throughout awards season so far: Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes. It’s a two-way race right now between Chalemet and Brody for two very different performances. I’m taking a swing with the last spot by picking Daniel Craig. Though Queer hasn’t garnered the critical acclaim one might expect for a Luca Gaudagnino film, I think there’s still a chance that it’s recognized through Craig’s performance. Sebastian Stan is still a strong contender though with two lauded performances, but I wonder if that bifurcates his votes in a way that leaves him out of the running.

Best Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)

Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez)

**Potential Spoilers: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Margaret Qualley (The Substance). 

We currently have another two-way race here between Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldaña (both for different musical performances). Behind them, Isabella Rossellini also appears to be a lock. The last two nominations could go in a few different directions; Felicity Jones would make sense, but Jamie Lee Curtis feels like she came out of nowhere as a contender for The Last Showgirl — a film I’ve hardly heard anything about. It’s just enough of a twist to feel plausible in a category like this. I would be happy with either Monica Barbaro or Margaret Qualley sliding in here instead though. 

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora)

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

**Potential Spoilers: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

For the most part, this category feels straightforward — and could largely mirror the films represented in the Best Actor race. Culkin has been the favorite since A Real Pain’s release, and he feels like the most likely bet to win out of any acting category. It’s possible the Academy gives us a Succession reunion by nominating Jeremy Strong over Clarence Maclin, but I’d rather see the latter recognized.