Happy Oscars-Eve!

At its core, I believe the Oscars should serve as a metric that both reflects and suggests. Nominations ought to represent both the tastes of modern audiences, the stories that everyone is talking about, while also shining a light on smaller, critically acclaimed fare and international films that an (American) audience wouldn’t otherwise seek out. The actual nominations don’t always adhere to this balance, but as noted in my best of 2023 list, this past year marked a time in which audiences came in droves to the theaters to celebrate original, innovative storytelling that take a variety of different forms.

There’s been one film on everyone’s mind at the forefront of this year: Oppenheimer. Whether it maintains that momentum all the way across the finish line remains to be seen until tomorrow, but if the precursors are any indicator, the odds look strong.

Here are my predictions for the 2024 Oscars:

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has felt like a lock for this category ever since the start of the awards race. Not unlike Ke Huy Quan’s dominant awards season run last year, Randolph has amassed every notable precursor: Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG (the most predictive award). Her emotionally resonant turn in The Holdovers is all but sure to be recognized.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)

RDJ has been a stalwart in Hollywood for years (and in my book, an acceptable nepo-baby). While he’s generally known for more wittier performances, his serious, more contained role in Oppenheimer has been recognized across voting bodies, blazing the way for him to take home top-prize (and continue the momentum for Oppenheimer’s likely dominant performance at the show).

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

This is perhaps the most competitive category of the night — certainly in any of the acting categories. Gladstone and Emma Stone (Poor Things) have been trading laps for who leads the race — with Gladstone winning the Golden Globe (Drama) and SAG, and Stone winning the Golden Globe (Comedy) and BAFTA. However, as with the Michelle Yeoh/Cate Blanchett showdown at last year’s ceremony, a win for Gladstone is much more salient here than a win for Stone (who already has an Oscar), and I think the Academy is aware of that. In addition to its historical relevance, Gladstone could also be the lone winner for Killers of the Flower Moon, which would be the perfect way to recognize the film and her vital role in it.

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

For a decent stretch of awards season, Murphy and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) appeared neck and neck. Like with the Best Actress race, though, this category became solidified for me after Murphy took home the SAG award. While an upset-win certainly isn’t out of the question for Giamatti (who infamously was denied an Oscar nomination for his other Alexander Payne starring role, Sideways), Murphy has the overall momentum on his side for finally taking center stage in a Christopher Nolan film.

Best Director: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Nolan has never given up the frontrunner position once throughout this awards race. He is one of the most significant modern auteur filmmakers we have and a strong advocate for the movie-going experience. While both he and his films have received nominations in the past, it feels certain that the Academy will “hear the music” this time by awarding him the Best Directing trophy.

Best Picture: Oppenheimer

I’ve already alluded to this film a number of times on this list. Since its release back in July, Oppenheimer has bulldozed towards Oscars Sunday, picking up the PGA and top honors across every awards body. If it wins, it will be the rare blockbuster film in recent years that the Academy has recognized. Anything is possible at the Academy Awards, but this feels like one of those years where the obvious choice, the behemoth of the category, is the correct one.

Above all, when we look back on 2023, I do believe that Oppenheimer is the most reflective of this year in film. Isn’t that what this award should represent?

Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

Best Short Film (Animated): The War is Over!

Best Documentary (Feature): 20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary (Short): The Last Repair Shop

Best Short Film (Live-Action): The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best International Film: The Zone of Interest

Best Editing: Oppenheimer

Best Sound: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

Best Production Design: Poor Things

Best Costume Design: Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro

Best Original Score: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)