It’s been an excellent year for film, which makes for an exciting landscape of awards contenders heading into the Oscars race. Certain films have dominated the conversation for months, fueled by festival buzz, critical acclaim, blockbuster prowess, or old fashioned word-of-mouth. Perhaps more so than in recent years, though, it feels like the films in contention for Oscars this year — whether that’s in the Best Picture category or elsewhere — are genuinely the best films this year, which is something I haven’t felt since the 2020 Oscars when Parasite was recognized.

Here are my predictions in the six major categories for this year’s Oscars (in alphabetical order):

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

**Potential Spoilers: The Color Purple, May December, Nyad

It’s not often that my predictions line up exactly with the Producers Guild nominations, but that signature precursor does feel prescient for the Best Picture category this year. One film continues to dominate the conversation: Oppenheimer. This, followed by Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things (in that order) make a strong top five in contention for top prize. 

The recent expansion to ten nominations, plus a wider voting body that includes more international Academy members, pave the way for films like The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall (the latter of which is not competing in the Best International Feature category) to round out the nominations. If there is an upset, one of these films or Past Lives might be ousted in favor of something like The Color Purple — a film with a late-stage push that I don’t quite have a beat on yet — but for now, it seems that the PGA has it right.

Best Director

Greta Gerwig (Barbie)

Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

**Potential Spoilers: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Celine Song (Past Lives)

Christopher Nolan has been the frontrunner in this category since Oppenheimer premiered back in July, and it’s likely he’ll ride this wave of acclaim right to a Best Director trophy. Greta Gerwig, Martin Scorsese, and Yorgos Lanthimos, fresh off their Directors Guild nominations, feel like solid bets as well. My wild-card selection here is Justine Triet; Anatomy of a Fall picked up some steam after winning two Golden Globes, and the critical acclaim for the Palme D’Or-winning film could translate to additional goodwill in the Best Director race. Glazer and Payne (the latter of whom garnered a DGA nomination as well) are very much within striking distance for the nomination, but Triet feels like a solid upset in this category.

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Margot Robbie (Barbie)

Emma Stone (Poor Things)

**Potential Spoilers: Annette Bening (Nyad), Greta Lee (Past Lives)

Over the last few weeks of early awards shows, two contenders have emerged as frontrunners in this category: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. They feel like sure-locks, followed by Margot Robbie and Carey Mulligan. As with Best Director, Anatomy of a Fall could also receive additional recognition in the form of Sandra Hüller (who also appears in The Zone of Interest from this year). Just outside of this top five is Annette Bening and Greta Lee (I would certainly be happy with a Lee-upset here as well)!

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

**Potential Spoilers: Colman Domingo (Rustin), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Much like the Best Actress race, there are two frontrunners for Best Actor: Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti, each of whom have garnered recognition across various voting bodies. Jeffrey Wright and Bradley Cooper are safe bets as well, having received Screen Actors Guild nominations beside Murphy and Giamatti. To shake things up, I’ve included Andrew Scott in the final spot for All of Us Strangers — an emotional performance from a much quieter film that the Academy may choose to shed light on. This happened with Paul Mescal in last year’s Aftersun, so there is precedent for it. However, that leaves two glaring omissions here that could still break through: Leonardo DiCaprio and Colman Domingo. Domingo received a SAG nomination, so he feels like the more plausible of the two.

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

**Potential Spoilers: Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Julianne Moore (May December)

One name continues to rise to the top when discussing Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Outside of her, this feels like the least locked down category — or at least, the category without a clear competitor for Randolph. My guess is that Emily Blunt will round out further recognition for Oppenheimer here, followed by Jodie Foster and Danielle Brooks, who both received SAG nominations (this is also the best place to recognize The Color Purple as a whole). I’m the least confident in America Ferrera’s prospects, simply because her performance has been underrated and undervalued across precursor awards bodies, but the goodwill for Barbie is strong, and that could be to her benefit. If not Ferrera, Penelope Cruz could slide into that fifth spot.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Charles Melton (May December)

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

**Potential Spoilers: Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey, Jr. is a lock for Oppenheimer, having picked up the necessary hardware and precursor nominations to secure the top spot as of today. Ryan Gosling will fall in behind RDJ for his scene-stealing comedic turn in Barbie. The recent SAG nominations have thrown a wrench into what I thought was a more clear-cut category; though Mark Ruffalo and Charles Melton failed to earn this nomination, I still believe they have enough steam to carry them to the Oscars, with Sterling K. Brown rounding out the category. That being said, I could see Willem Dafoe or Robert De Niro taking the spots over any of these three actors.